Dolphins vs Chiefs Same Game Parlay Predictions for Wild Card Weekend

Dec 17, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) after the game against the Buffalo Bills at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve crafted a Dolphins vs Chiefs same-game parlay for NFL Wild Card weekendThe weather is an important element in our MIA vs KC parlay predictionsRead below for Dolphins vs Chiefs same-game parlay for Saturday night

It’s expected to be around 0 degrees Fahrenheit when the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs face off Saturday night as part of NFL Wild Card weekend. We’ve crafted a same-game parlay that pays out at +407 odds.

Among our Dolphins vs Chiefs same-game parlay predictions is a pick on the under of 43.5 points. We’re also targeting player props pertaining to Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and Chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco.

Let’s get into our Dolphins vs Chiefs SGP, along with our reasoning for the picks. Learn more about creating NFL same-game parlays here.

Dolphins vs Chiefs Same-Game Parlay Picks

We’re leaning toward the Chiefs in our Saturday Night Football SGP, parlaying the game total under at -115 with player props on Tagovailoa and Pacheco to get us +407 odds. Odds at ESPN BET.

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The latest NFL odds show the Chiefs as 4.5-point favorites at Arrowhead Stadium. Make sure to also check out our Dolphins vs Chiefs picks after locking in your SGP.

Dolphins vs Chiefs SGP Picks: Under 43.5 Points

Meteorologists are forecasting “dangerously cold” conditions for Saturday’s playoff game between the Dolphins and Chiefs. Temperatures are expected to be minus-1 degrees with wind chills between minus-20 and minus-30 degrees by the time kick-off arrives, according to the National Weather Service.

The best way to tackle a cold-weather NFL game like this one is by targeting the “under” on the game total. This is simply because the cold weather makes it harder for players to perform at their best, therefore leading to fewer points being scored.

Tonight's @NFL game in Kansas City may go down in history as one of the coldest ever, with temperatures dropping below zero🥶@GEHAField #MIAvsKC pic.twitter.com/0xSP36BzPd

— The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) January 13, 2024

These two teams met in Germany during the regular season, in which there were only 35 total points scored in a 21-14 KC victory. The Dolphins, who will be facing KC’s second-ranked scoring defense, have lost their last 10 games when the weather is 40 degrees or below.

Yes, the under is also the clear public play in the NFL public betting trends, but there’s likely also some sharp money on this outcome. The total has dropped from 44 to 43.5 at major online sportsbooks, indicating there is some big money backing this outcome.

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Dolphins vs Chiefs SGP Picks: Tua Tagovailoa Passing Yards

Another addition to our Dolphins vs Chiefs same-game parlay is the under on the passing yards total for Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa. Tua has adapted well from transitioning from the warm climates of Hawaii and Alabama to the NFL, but cold weather games have posed a unique challenge.

Tagovailoa’s record in cold-weather games with temperatures under 45 degrees stands at just 0-4. His completion percentage in these conditions is 55.5%, with four touchdowns and five interceptions, culminating in a 71.8 passer rating. This starkly contrasts his impressive numbers in milder conditions.

Reminder that Tua Tagovailoa is 6-13 in temperatures under 70 degrees and 0-4 under 40 degrees pic.twitter.com/vXkh8xiFE6

— Fanatics Sportsbook (@FanaticsBook) January 13, 2024

Tua led the NFL in passing yards this season with 4,624 and has led arguably the league’s fastest-ever offense, but this KC defense is legit. Tua only threw for 193 yards in the first meeting this season, as the Chiefs rank second in total defense at 289.9 YPG allowed.

ESPN Bet is offering Tagovailoa under 230.5 passing yards at -115 odds, which is a line Tua has never beaten when playing in weather under 40 degrees. My colleague Bob Duff is also fading Tyreek Hill in his Dolphins vs Chiefs props, so that’s something to consider if you’re looking to add another leg to your NFL same-game parlay.

Dolphins vs Chiefs SGP Picks: Isaiah Pacheco Rushing Yards

Concluding our Chiefs vs. Dolphins same-game parlay is a play on the “over” on the rushing yards for Kansas City Chiefs running back Isaiah Pacheco. NFL cold-weather games tend to lead to high rushing totals as quarterbacks are hesitant to throw due to an increased likelihood of a turnover.

While Pacheco was rested in Kansas City’s last game against the Chargers, he played a starring role in Week 17 against Cincinnati, rushing the ball 18 times for 130 yards and one touchdown. He was the only KC running back to see carries in that game, and we project more heavy volume on Saturday.

In Kansas City’s previous meeting with Miami back in Week 9, Pacheco carried the ball 16 times for 66 yards while failing to haul in his lone target in a 21-14 win. The Dolphins have a top-10 rush defense this season, but they rank bottom-10 in tackling, per PFF.

Furthermore, Miami must overcome the losses of Jerome Baker (wrist), Andrew Van Ginkel (foot), and Cameron Goode (knee), who suffered season-ending injuries against the Bills last week. Miami’s defensive injuries combined with the weather conditions have us projecting a big night from Pacheco on the ground.

 

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