Indiana Pacers vs Milwaukee Bucks Odds, Spread & Picks for In-Season Tournament Semifinal

Nov 9, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Bruce Brown (11) in the second half against the Milwaukee Bucks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY SportsThe Indiana Pacers face the Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference final of the NBA In-Season TournamentMilwaukee is a neutral-court favorite, but Thursday’s spread is just a handful of pointsSee the Pacers vs Bucks odds, picks, and predictions for Dec. 7

The semifinals of the NBA’s inaugural In-Season Tournament take place on Thursday, Dec. 7, in Las Vegas. In the Eastern Conference portion of the bracket, the Indiana Pacers (11-8, 11-8 ATS) square off with the Milwaukee Bucks (15-6, 9-11-1 ATS) in a rare 2:00 pm PT/5:00 pm ET start at T-Mobile Arena.

The Bucks, who sit half a game behind Boston for the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference, are 4.5-point favorites over the Pacers, who currently hold the #6 seed in the NBA playoff bracket. All In-Season Tournament games count towards the regular-season standings except Saturday’s final.

Pacers vs Bucks Odds

The Bucks are also -200 on the moneyline to advance to the championship game, while the Pacers come back as +168 underdogs in Thursday’s NBA odds. Indiana vs Milwaukee has an All-Star-esque total of 254.5. Indiana plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and has the highest offensive rating this season, while Milwaukee is fifth in pace and third in offensive rating.

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Odds as of Dec. 7 on the FanDuel app. NBA bettors can claim this FanDuel promo code to bet on the NBA In-Season Tournament on Thursday.

Currently the third-favorite in the NBA championship odds, the Bucks have the shortest odds to win the first-ever In-Season Tournament of the four remaining teams: Milwaukee is listed at +160, followed by the LA Lakers (+230) and New Orleans Pelicans (+330), with Indiana (+480) bringing up the rear.

Indiana Still Perfect During In-Season Tournament

The Pacers were one of just four teams to post a perfect 4-0 record during the In-Season Tournament group stage, beating Cleveland, Philadelphia, Atlanta, and Detroit by an average of 9.7 points per game. They kept their perfect record intact in the quarterfinals with a 122-112 home win over the East-leading Boston Celtics. Tyrese Haliburton recorded his first career triple-double with 26 points, 13 assists, and 10 rebounds. All five Indiana starters (and seven players total) scored in double-ps, including 21 from Buddy Hield, who was a game-high +29 while on the floor.

The win over Boston was one of just several massively impressive victories for the Pacers this season, but they have been anything but consistent. In addition to road wins over the 76ers, Heat, and Cavaliers, they also have home losses to Chicago, Charlotte, and Portland on their resume.

The only thing bettors have really been able to rely on from the Pacers nightly is high-scoring games. Indiana games are averaging 253.6 points and they have a league-best 16-3 over/under record. Sportsbooks are, of course, adjusting, which is why today’s game total is at a lofty 254.5.

Averaging 128.4 points per game, if Indiana maintains its current scoring pace, it will break the NBA record long held by the 1981-82 Denver Nuggets (126.5 PPG). Haliburton has inserted his name into the NBA MVP odds, where he currently sits just outside the top-ten favorites at +3500.

On the injury front, Indiana will be without one rotation player tonight: Jalen Smith (10.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG in 15.4 minutes) is out Thursday’s NBA lineups with a foot injury.

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Bucks Still Working Lillard Into Lineup

It’s difficult to criticize a team that with a .714 win percentage, but Milwaukee coach Adrian Griffin would be the first to acknowledge that his team hasn’t really hit its stride this season. Milwaukee’s +4.0 point differential is only sixth-best in the NBA. After trading Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen in a three-team deal that saw Damian Lillard come to Milwaukee, the Bucks’ defense has taken a huge step back. Milwaukee owned the best defensive rating in the league last year, but sits just 15th in the NBA this season.  Their offense, of course, improved (going from 15th in offensive rating to third).

Like the Pacers, the Bucks have yet to lose an In-Season Tournament game, sweeping the Knicks, Heat, Hornets and Wizards in the group stage before routing the Knicks again (146-122) in the quarterfinals, led by a near-triple-double from Giannis Antetokounmpo (35 points, 10 assists, 8 rebounds).

Giannis (30.2 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 5.2 APG) remains the team’s undisputed leader on the offensive end, while Lillard (25.6 PPG, 6.9 APG) is having to adapt to a lower usage. His usage reached a career-high 33.8 last season with Portland and is down to just 28.6% in his first year with Milwaukee, his lowest since 2014-15. Lillard’s Player Efficiency Rating of 22.4 is his second-worst in the last eight years.

Milwaukee will be without both Pat Connaughton (ankle) and Jae Crowder (abdominal tear), who are averaging 5.8 and 8.1 PPG, respectively.

Pacers vs Bucks Prediction

The Bucks obviously have a much longer track record of success, finishing as a top-three seed in the Eastern Conference each of the last five seasons. Just looking at this year’s stats, though, there is very little to choose between the teams. Milwaukee has a slightly better point differential (+4.0 versus +3.2) while the Pacers have a better win percentage away from home (4-3 versus 5-5).

The higher-scoring a game, the more chances a favorite has to cover a small spread. I have no interest in betting the highly unpredictable Pacers ATS. But at +168 on the moneyline,  Indiana only needs a 38% win probability to be a +EV wager. With a win over Milwaukee already under their belt this season (126-124 home on Nov. 9), I’ll back the Pacers at plus-money.

Indiana vs Milwaukee pick: Pacers moneyline (+168)

Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

7-4-2 ATS (+2.35 units)2-2 ML (-0.26 units)3-7 player props (-4.27 units)

All wagers one unit unless expressly stated otherwise. 

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